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Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes

No environment is constant over time, and environmental fluctuations impact the outcome of evolutionary dynamics. Survival of a population not adapted to some environmental conditions is threatened unless, for example, a mutation rescues it, an eco-evolutionary process termed evolutionary rescue. We...

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Autores principales: Marrec, Loïc, Bank, Claudia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10229231/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37253425
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.0770
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author Marrec, Loïc
Bank, Claudia
author_facet Marrec, Loïc
Bank, Claudia
author_sort Marrec, Loïc
collection PubMed
description No environment is constant over time, and environmental fluctuations impact the outcome of evolutionary dynamics. Survival of a population not adapted to some environmental conditions is threatened unless, for example, a mutation rescues it, an eco-evolutionary process termed evolutionary rescue. We here investigate evolutionary rescue in an environment that fluctuates between a favourable state, in which the population grows, and a harsh state, in which the population declines. We develop a stochastic model that includes both population dynamics and genetics. We derive analytical predictions for the mean extinction time of a non-adapted population given that it is not rescued, the probability of rescue by a mutation, and the mean appearance time of a rescue mutant, which we validate using numerical simulations. We find that stochastic environmental fluctuations, resulting in quasi-periodic environmental changes, accelerate extinction and hinder evolutionary rescue compared with deterministic environmental fluctuations, resulting in periodic environmental changes. We demonstrate that high equilibrium population sizes and per capita growth rates maximize the chances of evolutionary rescue. We show that an imperfectly harsh environment, which does not fully prevent births but makes the death rate to birth rate ratio much greater than unity, has almost the same rescue probability as a perfectly harsh environment, which fully prevents births. Finally, we put our results in the context of antimicrobial resistance and conservation biology.
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spelling pubmed-102292312023-05-31 Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes Marrec, Loïc Bank, Claudia Proc Biol Sci Evolution No environment is constant over time, and environmental fluctuations impact the outcome of evolutionary dynamics. Survival of a population not adapted to some environmental conditions is threatened unless, for example, a mutation rescues it, an eco-evolutionary process termed evolutionary rescue. We here investigate evolutionary rescue in an environment that fluctuates between a favourable state, in which the population grows, and a harsh state, in which the population declines. We develop a stochastic model that includes both population dynamics and genetics. We derive analytical predictions for the mean extinction time of a non-adapted population given that it is not rescued, the probability of rescue by a mutation, and the mean appearance time of a rescue mutant, which we validate using numerical simulations. We find that stochastic environmental fluctuations, resulting in quasi-periodic environmental changes, accelerate extinction and hinder evolutionary rescue compared with deterministic environmental fluctuations, resulting in periodic environmental changes. We demonstrate that high equilibrium population sizes and per capita growth rates maximize the chances of evolutionary rescue. We show that an imperfectly harsh environment, which does not fully prevent births but makes the death rate to birth rate ratio much greater than unity, has almost the same rescue probability as a perfectly harsh environment, which fully prevents births. Finally, we put our results in the context of antimicrobial resistance and conservation biology. The Royal Society 2023-05-31 2023-05-31 /pmc/articles/PMC10229231/ /pubmed/37253425 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.0770 Text en © 2023 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Evolution
Marrec, Loïc
Bank, Claudia
Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes
title Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes
title_full Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes
title_fullStr Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes
title_full_unstemmed Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes
title_short Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes
title_sort evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes
topic Evolution
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10229231/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37253425
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.0770
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