Can the transformation of trade patterns achieve carbon reduction? Empirical evidence from a panel of 201 Chinese cities during the period 2000–2016

How the transformation of trade patterns affects carbon emissions is an important topic in the field of trade and the environment. Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2000 to 2016, this paper uses fixed effect model, instrumental variable model and threshold estimation model to investigate the impact of the transformation of export trade patterns on carbon emissions and its internal mechanism. We find that during the investigation period, the transformation of export trade pattern has a significant “U”-shaped nonlinear impact on carbon emissions, and the research results still hold after a series of robustness checks and instrumental variable estimation; through the mechanism analysis of the threshold effect, it is found that in the process of the impact of trade patterns transformation on carbon emissions, there are double thresholds for energy structure transition; the nonlinear impact of export trade pattern transformation on carbon emissions has significant heterogeneity in different regions, city categories, and different periods; the mechanism analysis results show that industrial structure upgrading, industrial co-agglomeration, and green technology innovation are the main paths that the transformation of export trade patterns affects carbon emissions. Under the dual goals of fulfilling China’s commitment to “carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060” and implementing corporate social governance to promote green and sustainable development, this paper will provide suggestions for realizing the goal of low-carbon emission reduction from the perspective of the transformation of export trade patterns.