Rising trend of childlessness in China: analysis of social and regional disparities with 2010 and 2020 census data

INTRODUCTION: In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in childlessness. This paper analysed childlessness in China, specifically examining its socio and regional disparities. METHODS: With data from China’s 2020 population census, supplemented with data from China’s 2010 population census and 2015 inter-censual 1% population sample survey, we used a basic indicator of age-specific childlessness proportion, a decomposition method, and probability distribution models to analyse, fit and project childlessness. RESULTS: We presented age-specific childlessness proportions for women as a whole and by socioeconomic features, decomposition and projection results. The childlessness proportion increased markedly from 2010 to 2020, reaching 5.16% for women aged 49. The proportion is highest for city women, followed by township women, and is lowest among village women, at 6.29%, 5.50% and 3.72 % for women aged 49, respectively. The proportion for women aged 49 with high college education or above was 7.98%, and only 4.42% for women with junior high school education. The proportion also exhibits marked provincial discrepancies, and the total fertility rate is negatively correlated with childlessness at the province level. The decomposition results distinguished the different contribution of change in educational structure and change in childlessness proportion for subgroups to the total childlessness proportion change. It is projected that city women, women with high education will have higher childlessness proportion, and the proportion will further increase with the rapid increase in education level and urbanisation. CONCLUSIONS: Childlessness has risen to a relatively high level, and varies among women with different characteristics. This should be taken into consideration in China’s countermeasures to reduce childlessness and curtail further fertility decline accordingly.