Estimating the Global Geographical Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Crop Pest Diuraphis noxia Kurdjumov under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Diuraphis noxia Kurdjumov is one of the most destructive invasive crop pests, reducing crop yield and quality and posing a great threat to global food security. Estimating the global geographical distribution patterns of D. noxia under climatic change is critical for its early warning and control and global food security. Here, the optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential global geographical distribution of D. noxia. Our results showed that the potential geographical distribution of D. noxia was mainly located in Asia, Europe, and North America, showing a general tendency to move to higher latitudes under future climate. The increased suitable area of D. noxia was mainly located in northwestern Asia, western Europe, and North America. The development of ecomanagement and cross-country early warning strategies is warranted in the above area to mitigate the future impacts of the expansion of D. noxia on food security. ABSTRACT: Invasive crop pests (ICPs) are a major cause of crop losses and adversely affect global food security. Diuraphis noxia Kurdjumov is a significant ICP that feeds on the sap of crops, reducing crop yield and quality. Although estimating the geographical distribution patterns of D. noxia under climate change is critical for its management and global food security, such information remains unclear. Based on 533 global occurrence records and 9 bioclimatic variables, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential global geographical distribution of D. noxia. The results showed that Bio1, Bio2, Bio7, and Bio12 were significant bioclimatic variables that influenced the potential geographical distribution of D. noxia. Under current climatic conditions, D. noxia was mainly distributed in west-central Asia, most of Europe, central North America, southern South America, southern and northern Africa, and southern Oceania. Under the SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios for the 2030s and 2050s, the potential suitable areas increased, and the centroid migrated to higher latitudes. The early warning of D. noxia in northwestern Asia, western Europe, and North America should be attended to further. Our results provide a theoretical basis for early monitoring and warning of D. noxia worldwide.