Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution Pattern of Osphya (Coleoptera: Melandryidae), an Old but Small Beetle Group Distributed in the Northern Hemisphere

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The spatial patterns of species are highly relevant to the contemporary environment and its topographical factors. It has been predicted that climate warming has the greatest impact on habitat selection and the expansion and contraction of geographic ranges for insects, as their physiological functions are strongly influenced by external environmental conditions. However, few studies focus on how the distribution pattern and range of the insects has or will change in response to long-term climate change. Under the background of climate warming, it is urgent for us to understand how the species distribution pattern is expected to change, in order to take some protection actions at the moment, particularly for those rare insect taxa. An old and Northern-Hemisphere-distributed beetle group Osphya is considered as an ideal candidate to conduct this aspect. In this study, we analyzed the distribution pattern and predicted the suitable habitats of Osphya under different climate scenarios (LGM, MID, Current, 2050s and 2070s) using ArcGIS techniques and MaxEnt modelling. The obtained results made us better understand how climate change affects the distribution pattern of the long-lived insects distributed in the Northern Hemisphere and provide guidance of the exploration and protection of the relict insects there such as Osphya. ABSTRACT: Exploring the development of species distribution patterns under climate change is the basis of biogeography and macroecology. However, under the background of global climate change, few studies focus on how the distribution pattern and the range of insects have or will change in response to long-term climate change. An old but small, Northern-Hemisphere-distributed beetle group Osphya is an ideal subject to conduct the study in this aspect. Here, based on a comprehensive geographic dataset, we analyzed the global distribution pattern of Osphya using ArcGIS techniques, which declared a discontinuous and uneven distribution pattern across the USA, Europe, and Asia. Furthermore, we predicted the suitable habitats of Osphya under different climate scenarios via the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the high suitability areas were always concentrated in the European Mediterranean and the western coast of USA, while a low suitability exhibited in Asia. Moreover, by integrating the analyses of biogeography and habitat suitability, we inferred that the Osphya species conservatively prefer a warm, stable, and rainy climate, and they tend to expand towards higher latitude in response to the climate warming from the past to future. These results are helpful in exploring the species diversity and protection of Osphya.