Diabetes mellitus, prediabetes and the risk of Parkinson’s disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 15 cohort studies with 29.9 million participants and 86,345 cases

A diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and prediabetes has been associated with increased risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) in several studies, but results have not been entirely consistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies on diabetes mellitus, prediabetes and the risk of PD to provide an up-to-date assessment of the evidence. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for relevant studies up to 6th of February 2022. Cohort studies reporting adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between diabetes, prediabetes and Parkinson’s disease were included. Summary RRs (95% CIs) were calculated using a random effects model. Fifteen cohort studies (29.9 million participants, 86,345 cases) were included in the meta-analysis. The summary RR (95% CI) of PD for persons with diabetes compared to persons without diabetes was 1.27 (1.20–1.35, I(2) = 82%). There was no indication of publication bias, based on Egger’s test (p = 0.41), Begg’s test (p = 0.99), and inspection of the funnel plot. The association was consistent across geographic regions, by sex, and across several other subgroup and sensitivity analyses. There was some suggestion of a stronger association for diabetes patients reporting diabetes complications than for diabetes patients without complications (RR = 1.54, 1.32–1.80 [n = 3] vs. 1.26, 1.16–1.38 [n = 3]), vs. those without diabetes (p(heterogeneity)=0.18). The summary RR for prediabetes was 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02–1.07, I(2) = 0%, n = 2). Our results suggest that patients with diabetes have a 27% increased relative risk of developing PD compared to persons without diabetes, and persons with prediabetes have a 4% increase in RR compared to persons with normal blood glucose. Further studies are warranted to clarify the specific role age of onset or duration of diabetes, diabetic complications, glycaemic level and its long-term variability and management may play in relation to PD risk. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-023-00970-0.