Glycemic variability and the risk of atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Glycemic variability (GV) has been associated with vascular complications in patients with diabetes. However, the relationship between GV and risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) remains not fully determined. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the above association. METHODS: Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Wanfang, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure were searched for longitudinal follow-up studies comparing the incidence of AF between patients with higher versus lower GV. A random-effects model incorporating the potential heterogeneity was used to pool the results. RESULTS: Nine cohort studies with 6,877,661 participants were included, and 36,784 (0.53%) participants developed AF during follow-up. Pooled results showed that a high GV was associated with an increased risk of AF (risk ratio [RR]: 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11 to 1.30, p < 0.001, I(2) = 20%). Subgroup analyses suggested consistent association between GV and AF in prospective (RR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.59, p = 0.01) and retrospective studies (RR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.29, p = 0.002), in diabetic (RR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.50, p = 0.03) and non-diabetic subjects (RR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.28, p = 0.05), in studies with short-term (RR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.40, p < 0.001) and long-term GV (RR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.34, p = 0.006), and in studies with different quality scores (p for subgroup difference all > 0.05). CONCLUSION: A high GV may predict an increased risk of AF in adult population.