Childhood, adolescent, and adulthood adiposity are associated with risk of PCOS: a Mendelian randomization study with meta-analysis

STUDY QUESTION: What is the influence of body composition during childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, as well as metabolic parameters, on incident polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)? SUMMARY ANSWER: Excess body fat, even during childhood/adolescence, and metabolic parameters, suggestive of hyperinsulinaemia/insulin resistance, significantly impact the risk of PCOS in a linear fashion. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) data have demonstrated an association between adulthood overweight/obesity and development of PCOS. However, the contribution of body composition in childhood/adolescence to incident PCOS is unclear, as is the influence of childhood overweight/obesity. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis and integrated our results with a previously published systematic review. Two blinded investigators screened abstracts published between November 2010 and May 2021. Furthermore, we incorporated summary statistics from genome-wide association study (GWAS) data in subjects of European ancestry. Adult overweight was defined as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2) and obesity as BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2); in Asian subjects, overweight was defined as BMI ≥ 23 kg/m(2) and obesity as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We utilized meta-analysis and MR together to allow synthesis of genetic and observational data. For the systematic review, the search revealed 71 studies, of which 63 were included in meta-analysis by calculating odds ratios (ORs) using the random-effects model. Furthermore, we conducted a two-sample MR study of GWAS data to determine the impact of childhood and adult body size (defined categorically by BMI and childhood body size proportions), abnormal body composition and metabolic parameters (higher fasting serum insulin or lower sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentration) on the odds of incident PCOS via the inverse-variance weighted method. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Significant associations were shown between body composition and PCOS incidence. From the systematic review/meta-analysis, women with overweight (OR 3.80, 2.87–5.03), obesity (OR 4.99, 3.74–6.67), and central obesity (OR 2.93, 2.08–4.12) had increased odds of PCOS. For adolescents with overweight and/or obesity, the PCOS odds were greater than for adults. From MR, for every standard deviation increase in BMI (4.8 kg/m(2)), the odds of PCOS increased by 2.76 (2.27–3.35). Childhood body size had an independent effect on PCOS odds after adjusting for adult body size (OR: 2.56, 1.57–4.20). Genetically determined body fat percentage (OR 3.05, 2.24–4.15), whole body fat mass (OR 2.53, 2.04–3.14), fasting serum insulin (OR 6.98, 2.02–24.13), and SHBG concentration (OR 0.74, 0.64–0.87) were all significantly associated with PCOS in a linear relation. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The meta-analysis included studies which were cross-sectional and retrospective, limiting our ability to determine causality. MR was limited by interrogating subjects only of European ancestry and including cases classified by either self-diagnosis or diagnostic criteria. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our study demonstrates for the first time a critical role of the impact of excess childhood/adolescent adiposity on the pathophysiology of adult PCOS. Our results, driven by genetically determined childhood/adolescent body composition, higher BMI, hyperinsulinaemia, and lower SHBG, clearly favour obesity driving the metabolic, but not reproductive, PCOS phenotype. Overall, effective weight maintenance, even from the early years, is likely to reduce the risk of this reproductive endocrine disorder. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): S.S.Z. was funded by a National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Academic Clinical Lectureship. U.A. is chair of the NIHR Steering Committee Trial—CASSANDRA-DN. No other authors declare any sources of funding or relevant conflicts of interest. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relations that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.