Predicting 30-day readmission following total knee arthroplasty using machine learning and clinical expertise applied to clinical administrative and research registry data in an Australian cohort

BACKGROUND: Thirty-day readmission is an increasingly important problem for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients. The aim of this study was to develop a risk prediction model using machine learning and clinical insight for 30-day readmission in primary TKA patients. METHOD: Data used to train and internally validate a multivariable predictive model were obtained from a single tertiary referral centre for TKA located in Victoria, Australia. Hospital administrative data and clinical registry data were utilised, and predictors were selected through systematic review and subsequent consultation with clinicians caring for TKA patients. Logistic regression and random forest models were compared to one another. Calibration was evaluated by visual inspection of calibration curves and calculation of the integrated calibration index (ICI). Discriminative performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: The models developed in this study demonstrated adequate calibration for use in the clinical setting, despite having poor discriminative performance. The best-calibrated readmission prediction model was a logistic regression model trained on administrative data using risk factors identified from systematic review and meta-analysis, which are available at the initial consultation (ICI = 0.012, AUC-ROC = 0.589). Models developed to predict complications associated with readmission also had reasonable calibration (ICI = 0.012, AUC-ROC = 0.658). CONCLUSION: Discriminative performance of the prediction models was poor, although machine learning provided a slight improvement. The models were reasonably well calibrated, meaning they provide accurate patient-specific probabilities of these outcomes. This information can be used in shared clinical decision-making for discharge planning and post-discharge follow up. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42836-023-00186-3.