A social network analysis approach to estimate export disruption spread in the US during the Covid-19 pandemic: how policy response and industry ties relate

We examine how the Covid-19 pandemic led to the propagation of export disruptions on a state-by-state basis using a social network analysis model. We measure the impact of import disruptions, Covid-related hospitalizations, subsequent policy responses, and structural network effects on economic outcomes. In addition to examining contemporaneous effects, we include lagged policy response variables to determine their effect on disruption recovery trends. Findings suggest that disruptions cluster along shared industry connections. The results are consistent with previous work that shows that non-pharmaceutical policy interventions had limited contemporaneous and medium-term effects on trade flows. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40812-023-00271-3.