Predictors of suicide attempt within 30 days of first medically documented major depression diagnosis in U.S. army soldiers with no prior suicidal ideation

BACKGROUND: Understanding mental health predictors of imminent suicide attempt (SA; within 30 days) among soldiers with depression and no prior suicide ideation (SI) can inform prevention and treatment. The current study aimed to identify sociodemographic and service-related characteristics and mental disorder predictors associated with imminent SA among U.S. Army soldiers following first documented major depression diagnosis (MDD) with no history of SI. METHODS: In this case-control study using Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) administrative data, we identified 101,046 active-duty Regular Army enlisted soldiers (2010–2016) with medically-documented MDD and no prior SI (MDD/No-SI). We examined risk factors for SA within 30 days of first MDD/No-SI using logistic regression analyses, including socio-demographic/service-related characteristics and psychiatric diagnoses. RESULTS: The 101,046 soldiers with documented MDD/No-SI were primarily male (78.0%), < 29 years old (63.9%), White (58.1%), high school-educated (74.5%), currently married (62.0%) and < 21 when first entering the Army (56.9%). Among soldiers with MDD/No-SI, 2,600 (2.6%) subsequently attempted suicide, 16.2% (n = 421) within 30 days (rate: 416.6/100,000). Our final multivariable model identified: Soldiers with less than high school education (χ(2)(3) = 11.21, OR = 1.5[95%CI = 1.2–1.9]); combat medics (χ(2)(2) = 8.95, OR = 1.5[95%CI = 1.1–2.2]); bipolar disorder (OR = 3.1[95%CI = 1.5–6.3]), traumatic stress (i.e., acute reaction to stress/not PTSD; OR = 2.6[95%CI = 1.4–4.8]), and “other” diagnosis (e.g., unspecified mental disorder: OR = 5.5[95%CI = 3.8-8.0]) diagnosed same day as MDD; and those with alcohol use disorder (OR = 1.4[95%CI = 1.0-1.8]) and somatoform/dissociative disorders (OR = 1.7[95%CI = 1.0-2.8]) diagnosed before MDD were more likely to attempt suicide within 30 days. Currently married soldiers (χ(2)(2) = 6.68, OR = 0.7[95%CI = 0.6–0.9]), those in service 10 + years (χ(2)(3) = 10.06, OR = 0.4[95%CI = 0.2–0.7]), and a sleep disorder diagnosed same day as MDD (OR = 0.3[95%CI = 0.1–0.9]) were less likely. CONCLUSIONS: SA risk within 30 days following first MDD is more likely among soldiers with less education, combat medics, and bipolar disorder, traumatic stress, and “other” disorder the same day as MDD, and alcohol use disorder and somatoform/dissociative disorders before MDD. These factors identify imminent SA risk and can be indicators for early intervention. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12888-023-04872-z.