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Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate
Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future proje...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10239457/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37270607 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38980-x |
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author | Wang, Shuyu Ma, Xiaohui Zhou, Shenghui Wu, Lixin Wang, Hong Tang, Zhili Xu, Guangzhi Jing, Zhao Chen, Zhaohui Gan, Bolan |
author_facet | Wang, Shuyu Ma, Xiaohui Zhou, Shenghui Wu, Lixin Wang, Hong Tang, Zhili Xu, Guangzhi Jing, Zhao Chen, Zhaohui Gan, Bolan |
author_sort | Wang, Shuyu |
collection | PubMed |
description | Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models’ ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more of the occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for the landfalling EARs, by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will be reduced in a warming climate, potentially influencing the predictability of future EARs. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10239457 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-102394572023-06-05 Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate Wang, Shuyu Ma, Xiaohui Zhou, Shenghui Wu, Lixin Wang, Hong Tang, Zhili Xu, Guangzhi Jing, Zhao Chen, Zhaohui Gan, Bolan Nat Commun Article Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models’ ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more of the occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for the landfalling EARs, by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will be reduced in a warming climate, potentially influencing the predictability of future EARs. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-06-03 /pmc/articles/PMC10239457/ /pubmed/37270607 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38980-x Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Wang, Shuyu Ma, Xiaohui Zhou, Shenghui Wu, Lixin Wang, Hong Tang, Zhili Xu, Guangzhi Jing, Zhao Chen, Zhaohui Gan, Bolan Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate |
title | Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate |
title_full | Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate |
title_fullStr | Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed | Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate |
title_short | Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate |
title_sort | extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10239457/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37270607 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38980-x |
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