Declining incidence rate of tuberculosis among close contacts in five years post-exposure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Individuals in close contact with active pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients showed a high risk of recent infection and, once infected, higher risk of developing active TB in the following years post-exposure. But the peak time of active disease onset is unclear. This study aims to estimate post exposure TB incidence risk among close contacts to provide reference for clinical and public health strategies. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE for articles published until December 1, 2022. The incidence rates were quantitatively summarized by means of meta-analysis using the random-effect model. RESULTS: Of the 5616 studies, 31 studies included in our analysis. For baseline close contacts results, the summarized prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection and active TB was found to be 46.30% (95% CI: 37.18%-55.41%) and 2.68% (95% CI: 2.02%-3.35%), respectively. During the follow-up, the 1-year, 2-year and 5-year cumulative incidence of TB in close contacts were 2.15% (95% CI: 1.51%-2.80%), 1.21% (95% CI: 0.93%-1.49%) and 1.11% (95% CI: 0.64%-1.58%), respectively. Individuals with a positive result of MTB infection testing at baseline showed significantly higher cumulative TB incidence as compared to those negatives (3.80% vs. 0.82%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with close contact to active pulmonary TB patients are bearing significant risk of developing active TB, particularly within the first-year post-exposure. Population with recent infections should be an important priority for active case finding and preventive intervention worldwide. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-023-08348-z.