The 2022 and 2023 Emergency Medicine Residency Match: A Cautionary Tale

Introduction The emergency medicine (EM) match has undergone significant shifts in 2022 and 2023. While variation in specialty fill rates is expected over time, EM programs noted a significant increase in open positions starting in 2022. Utilizing National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) data over a 10-year period, we identified significant deviations in the emergency medicine match. Methods Shewhart control charts were used to plot the match results over time. A 10-year sample was used to establish the baseline value. From this value, the upper and lower control limits were established. Residency program expansion, decreasing applicant numbers, and changing applicant types were evaluated to detect any non-random changes to the process. Results While the number of EM PGY-1 positions added over time was within the expected range, both the number of unmatched positions and the change in the number of total US MD applicants were outside of this range and are considered to be "out of control." Conclusion It is not yet clear which contributing causes may underlie this sudden change. Several potential etiologies exist, including mismatches in supply and demand for positions, changes in perceptions of the specialty, the effects of COVID-19, and changing workforce needs. Historically similar experiences affecting other specialties, including anesthesia and radiation oncology, are analyzed. Potential solutions for returning to the necessary and usual success of the emergency medicine specialty match are explored.