Predicting the risk of malaria re-introduction in countries certified malaria-free: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Predicting the risk of malaria in countries certified malaria-free is crucial for the prevention of re-introduction. This review aimed to identify and describe existing prediction models for malaria re-introduction risk in eliminated settings. METHODS: A systematic literature search following the PRISMA guidelines was carried out. Studies that developed or validated a malaria risk prediction model in eliminated settings were included. At least two authors independently extracted data using a pre-defined checklist developed by experts in the field. The risk of bias was assessed using both the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) and the adapted Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (aNOS). RESULTS: A total 10,075 references were screened and 10 articles describing 11 malaria re-introduction risk prediction models in 6 countries certified malaria free. Three-fifths of the included prediction models were developed for the European region. Identified parameters predicting malaria re-introduction risk included environmental and meteorological, vectorial, population migration, and surveillance and response related factors. Substantial heterogeneity in predictors was observed among the models. All studies were rated at a high risk of bias by PROBAST, mostly because of a lack of internal and external validation of the models. Some studies were rated at a low risk of bias by the aNOS scale. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria re-introduction risk remains substantial in many countries that have eliminated malaria. Multiple factors were identified which could predict malaria risk in eliminated settings. Although the population movement is well acknowledged as a risk factor associated with the malaria re-introduction risk in eliminated settings, it is not frequently incorporated in the risk prediction models. This review indicated that the proposed models were generally poorly validated. Therefore, future emphasis should be first placed on the validation of existing models. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-023-04604-4.