Translatability scoring in prospective and retrospective COVID drug development cases

BACKGROUND: The ongoing pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has led to an enormous surge of clinical research. So far, the speed and success rate of related drug development projects, especially of vaccines, is unprecedented. For the first time, this situation allowed for the opportunistic evaluation of a translatability score, originally proposed in 2009, in a prospective manner. METHODS: Several vaccines and treatments under development in clinical phase III trials were selected for translational scoring with the translatability score. Six prospective and six retrospective case studies were performed. The scores had to be determined for a fictive date before any results of the phase III trial were reported in any media. Spearman correlation analysis and a Kruskal Wallis test were performed for statistical evaluation. RESULTS: A significant correlation between the translatability scores and the clinical outcomes in translation was found, as judged on the basis of positive/intermediate/negative endpoint studies or market approval. The Spearman correlation analysis of all cases (r = 0.91, p < 0.001), the prospective cases alone (r = 0.93, p = 0.008), and the retrospective cases alone (r = 0.93, p = 0.008) showed a strong correlation between the score and outcome; R(2) demonstrated a score-derived determination of outcomes by 86%. CONCLUSIONS: The score detects strengths and weaknesses of a given project, resulting in the opportunity of selective amelioration of a project, as well as prospective portfolio risk balancing. Its substantial predictive value that has been demonstrated here for the first time could be of particular interest for biomedical industry (pharmaceutical and device manufacturers), funding agencies, venture capitalists, and researchers in the area. Future evaluations will have to address the generalizability of results obtained in an exceptional pandemic situation, and the potential adaptations of weighing factors/items to particular therapeutic areas. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00228-023-03517-0.