Defining indicators for the scoping stage of health impact assessment to evaluate tobacco control policy in the city of Beijing

INTRODUCTION: Beijing initiated the nation’s most comprehensive tobacco control program that adheres to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. This study aimed to identify a set of indicators for the scoping of an Health Impact Assessment (HIA) to assess this policy. METHODS: This study used a modified Delphi process. It proposed a tobacco control health impact framework based on the Driving forces- Pressure- State- Exposure- Effect- Action model and the Determinants of Health Theory. After a review of current surveillance system and literature, a working group of 13 experts with multidisciplinary background was established to formulate indicator evaluation criteria and conduct indicator scoring. Each indicator was scored by experts according to four evaluation criteria chosen. Indicators that obtained a total score above 80% and with standard error less than 5 were selected as the final set of indicators. Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was calculated. RESULTS: Twenty-three out of 36 indicators were selected. Smoking prevalence, mortality rate, hospital admission rate, tobacco consumption and hospital admission fees of smoking related diseases achieved more than 90% of total scores and ranked as the top five. Kendall’s concordance coefficient was 0.218 for all indicators. For all model composition, Kendall’s concordance coefficients were statistically significant. CONCLUSION: This study identified a set of twenty-three indicators for scoping of HIA of a comprehensive tobacco control policy in Beijing based on a tobacco control health impact conceptual framework. The set of indicators achieved high scores and statistically significant consistency and has great potential to promote the evaluation of tobacco control policy in a global city. Further study might use the set of indicators for HIA on tobacco control policy to analyze empirical data.