Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model

BACKGROUND: More than half of the population in Korea had a prior COVID-19 infection. In 2022, most nonpharmaceutical interventions, except mask-wearing indoors, had been lifted. And in 2023, the indoor mask mandates were eased. METHODS: We developed an age-structured compartmental model that distinguishes vaccination history, prior infection, and medical staff from the rest of the population. Contact patterns among hosts were separated based on age and location. We simulated scenarios with the lifting of the mask mandate all at once or sequentially according to the locations. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of a new variant assuming that it has higher transmissibility and risk of breakthrough infection. RESULTS: We found that the peak size of administered severe patients may not exceed 1100 when the mask mandate is lifted everywhere, and 800 if the mask mandate only remains in the hospital. If the mask mandate is lifted in a sequence (except hospital), then the peak size of administered severe patients may not exceed 650. Moreover, if the new variant has both higher transmissibility and immune reduction, the effective reproductive number of the new variant is approximately 3 times higher than that of the current variant, and additional interventions may be needed to keep the administered severe patients from exceeding 2,000, which is the critical level we set. CONCLUSION: Our findings showed that the lifting of the mask mandate, except in hospitals, would be more manageable if implemented sequentially. Considering a new variant, we found that depending on the population immunity and transmissibility of the variant, wearing masks and other interventions may be necessary for controlling the disease.