Identification and validation of a DNA methylation-driven gene-based prognostic model for clear cell renal cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is a malignant tumor with heterogeneous morphology and poor prognosis. This study aimed to establish a DNA methylation (DNAm)-driven gene-based prognostic model for ccRCC. METHODS: Reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) was performed on the DNA extracts from ccRCC patients. We analyzed the RRBS data from 10 pairs of patient samples to screen the candidate CpG sites, then trained and validated an 18-CpG site model, and integrated the clinical characters to establish a Nomogram model for the prognosis or risk evaluation of ccRCC. RESULTS: We identified 2261 DMRs in the promoter region. After DMR selection, 578 candidates were screened, and was correspondence with 408 CpG dinucleotides in the 450 K array. We collected the DNAm profiles of 478 ccRCC samples from TCGA dataset. Using the training set with 319 samples, a prognostic panel of 18 CpGs was determined by univariate Cox regression, LASSO regression, and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. We constructed a prognostic model by combining the clinical signatures. In the test set (159 samples) and whole set (478 samples), the Kaplan–Meier plot showed significant differences; and the ROC curve and survival analyses showed AUC greater than 0.7. The Nomogram integrated with clinicopathological characters and methylation risk score had better performance, and the decision curve analyses also showed a beneficial effect. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides insight into the role of hypermethylation in ccRCC. The targets identified might serve as biomarkers for early ccRCC diagnosis and prognosis biomarkers for ccRCC. We believe our findings have implications for better risk stratification and personalized management of this disease. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12864-023-09416-z.