Risk factors for clinical progression in patients with pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex disease without culture-positive sputum: a single-center, retrospective study

OBJECTIVES: Limited data are available on the progression of pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) disease without culture-positive sputum. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with clinical progression of pulmonary MAC disease diagnosed by bronchoscopy. METHODS: A single-center, retrospective, observational study was conducted. Pulmonary MAC patients diagnosed by bronchoscopy without culture-positive sputum from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017 were analyzed. Clinical progression after diagnosis was defined as having culture-positive sputum at least once or initiation of guideline-based therapy. Then, clinical characteristics were compared between clinically progressed patients and stable patients. RESULTS: Ninety-three pulmonary MAC patients diagnosed by bronchoscopy were included in the analysis. During the 4-year period after diagnosis, 38 patients (40.9%) started treatment, and 35 patients (37.6%) had new culture-positive sputum. Consequently, 52 patients (55.9%) were classified into the progressed group, and 41 patients (44.1%) were classified into the stable group. There were no significant differences between the progressed and the stable groups in age, body mass index, smoking status, comorbidities, symptoms, or species isolated from bronchoscopy. On multivariate analysis, male sex, monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR) ≥ 0.17, and the presence of combined lesions in the middle (lingula) and lower lobes were risk factors for clinical progression. CONCLUSIONS: Some patients with pulmonary MAC disease without culture-positive sputum progress within 4 years. Therefore, pulmonary MAC patients, especially male patients, having higher MLR or lesions in the middle (lingula) and lower lobes might need careful follow-up for a longer time.