Development of ensemble learning models for prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients underwent postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND: Postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) has been increasing widely used to improve the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, clinical outcomes vary from patient to patient, which calls for individualized prognostic prediction and early management. METHODS: A total of 274 HCC patients who underwent PA-TACE were enrolled in this study. The prediction performance of five machine learning models was compared and the prognostic variables of postoperative outcomes were identified. RESULTS: Compared with other machine learning models, the risk prediction model based on ensemble learning strategies, including Boosting, Bagging, and Stacking algorithms, presented better prediction performance for overall mortality and HCC recurrence. Moreover, the results showed that the Stacking algorithm had relatively low time consumption, good discriminative ability, and the best prediction performance. In addition, according to time-dependent ROC analysis, the ensemble learning strategies were found to perform well in predicting both OS and RFS for the patients. Our study also found that BCLC Stage, hsCRP/ALB and frequency of PA-TACE were relatively important variables in both overall mortality and recurrence, while MVI contributed more to the recurrence of the patients. CONCLUSION: Among the five machine learning models, the ensemble learning strategies, especially the Stacking algorithm, could better predict the prognosis of HCC patients following PA-TACE. Machine learning models could also help clinicians identify the important prognostic factors that are clinically useful in individualized patient monitoring and management.