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Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems
Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media–conducted surve...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
American Association for the Advancement of Science
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10256151/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37294754 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg7676 |
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author | McCabe, Ruth Whittaker, Charles Sheppard, Richard J. Abdelmagid, Nada Ahmed, Aljaile Alabdeen, Israa Zain Brazeau, Nicholas F. Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abd Elhameed Bin-Ghouth, Abdulla Salem Hamlet, Arran AbuKoura, Rahaf Barnsley, Gregory Hay, James A. Alhaffar, Mervat Koum Besson, Emilie Saje, Semira Mitiku Sisay, Binyam Girma Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos Sikamo, Adane Petros Worku, Aschalew Ahmed, Yakob Seman Mariam, Damen Haile Sisay, Mitike Molla Checchi, Francesco Dahab, Maysoon Endris, Bilal Shikur Ghani, Azra C. Walker, Patrick G. T. Donnelly, Christl A. Watson, Oliver J. |
author_facet | McCabe, Ruth Whittaker, Charles Sheppard, Richard J. Abdelmagid, Nada Ahmed, Aljaile Alabdeen, Israa Zain Brazeau, Nicholas F. Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abd Elhameed Bin-Ghouth, Abdulla Salem Hamlet, Arran AbuKoura, Rahaf Barnsley, Gregory Hay, James A. Alhaffar, Mervat Koum Besson, Emilie Saje, Semira Mitiku Sisay, Binyam Girma Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos Sikamo, Adane Petros Worku, Aschalew Ahmed, Yakob Seman Mariam, Damen Haile Sisay, Mitike Molla Checchi, Francesco Dahab, Maysoon Endris, Bilal Shikur Ghani, Azra C. Walker, Patrick G. T. Donnelly, Christl A. Watson, Oliver J. |
author_sort | McCabe, Ruth |
collection | PubMed |
description | Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media–conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10256151 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-102561512023-06-10 Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems McCabe, Ruth Whittaker, Charles Sheppard, Richard J. Abdelmagid, Nada Ahmed, Aljaile Alabdeen, Israa Zain Brazeau, Nicholas F. Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abd Elhameed Bin-Ghouth, Abdulla Salem Hamlet, Arran AbuKoura, Rahaf Barnsley, Gregory Hay, James A. Alhaffar, Mervat Koum Besson, Emilie Saje, Semira Mitiku Sisay, Binyam Girma Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos Sikamo, Adane Petros Worku, Aschalew Ahmed, Yakob Seman Mariam, Damen Haile Sisay, Mitike Molla Checchi, Francesco Dahab, Maysoon Endris, Bilal Shikur Ghani, Azra C. Walker, Patrick G. T. Donnelly, Christl A. Watson, Oliver J. Sci Adv Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media–conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2023-06-09 /pmc/articles/PMC10256151/ /pubmed/37294754 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg7676 Text en Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences McCabe, Ruth Whittaker, Charles Sheppard, Richard J. Abdelmagid, Nada Ahmed, Aljaile Alabdeen, Israa Zain Brazeau, Nicholas F. Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abd Elhameed Bin-Ghouth, Abdulla Salem Hamlet, Arran AbuKoura, Rahaf Barnsley, Gregory Hay, James A. Alhaffar, Mervat Koum Besson, Emilie Saje, Semira Mitiku Sisay, Binyam Girma Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos Sikamo, Adane Petros Worku, Aschalew Ahmed, Yakob Seman Mariam, Damen Haile Sisay, Mitike Molla Checchi, Francesco Dahab, Maysoon Endris, Bilal Shikur Ghani, Azra C. Walker, Patrick G. T. Donnelly, Christl A. Watson, Oliver J. Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems |
title | Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems |
title_full | Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems |
title_fullStr | Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems |
title_full_unstemmed | Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems |
title_short | Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems |
title_sort | alternative epidemic indicators for covid-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems |
topic | Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10256151/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37294754 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg7676 |
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