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Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media–conducted surve...

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Autores principales: McCabe, Ruth, Whittaker, Charles, Sheppard, Richard J., Abdelmagid, Nada, Ahmed, Aljaile, Alabdeen, Israa Zain, Brazeau, Nicholas F., Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abd Elhameed, Bin-Ghouth, Abdulla Salem, Hamlet, Arran, AbuKoura, Rahaf, Barnsley, Gregory, Hay, James A., Alhaffar, Mervat, Koum Besson, Emilie, Saje, Semira Mitiku, Sisay, Binyam Girma, Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos, Sikamo, Adane Petros, Worku, Aschalew, Ahmed, Yakob Seman, Mariam, Damen Haile, Sisay, Mitike Molla, Checchi, Francesco, Dahab, Maysoon, Endris, Bilal Shikur, Ghani, Azra C., Walker, Patrick G. T., Donnelly, Christl A., Watson, Oliver J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10256151/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37294754
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg7676
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author McCabe, Ruth
Whittaker, Charles
Sheppard, Richard J.
Abdelmagid, Nada
Ahmed, Aljaile
Alabdeen, Israa Zain
Brazeau, Nicholas F.
Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abd Elhameed
Bin-Ghouth, Abdulla Salem
Hamlet, Arran
AbuKoura, Rahaf
Barnsley, Gregory
Hay, James A.
Alhaffar, Mervat
Koum Besson, Emilie
Saje, Semira Mitiku
Sisay, Binyam Girma
Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos
Sikamo, Adane Petros
Worku, Aschalew
Ahmed, Yakob Seman
Mariam, Damen Haile
Sisay, Mitike Molla
Checchi, Francesco
Dahab, Maysoon
Endris, Bilal Shikur
Ghani, Azra C.
Walker, Patrick G. T.
Donnelly, Christl A.
Watson, Oliver J.
author_facet McCabe, Ruth
Whittaker, Charles
Sheppard, Richard J.
Abdelmagid, Nada
Ahmed, Aljaile
Alabdeen, Israa Zain
Brazeau, Nicholas F.
Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abd Elhameed
Bin-Ghouth, Abdulla Salem
Hamlet, Arran
AbuKoura, Rahaf
Barnsley, Gregory
Hay, James A.
Alhaffar, Mervat
Koum Besson, Emilie
Saje, Semira Mitiku
Sisay, Binyam Girma
Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos
Sikamo, Adane Petros
Worku, Aschalew
Ahmed, Yakob Seman
Mariam, Damen Haile
Sisay, Mitike Molla
Checchi, Francesco
Dahab, Maysoon
Endris, Bilal Shikur
Ghani, Azra C.
Walker, Patrick G. T.
Donnelly, Christl A.
Watson, Oliver J.
author_sort McCabe, Ruth
collection PubMed
description Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media–conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.
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spelling pubmed-102561512023-06-10 Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems McCabe, Ruth Whittaker, Charles Sheppard, Richard J. Abdelmagid, Nada Ahmed, Aljaile Alabdeen, Israa Zain Brazeau, Nicholas F. Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abd Elhameed Bin-Ghouth, Abdulla Salem Hamlet, Arran AbuKoura, Rahaf Barnsley, Gregory Hay, James A. Alhaffar, Mervat Koum Besson, Emilie Saje, Semira Mitiku Sisay, Binyam Girma Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos Sikamo, Adane Petros Worku, Aschalew Ahmed, Yakob Seman Mariam, Damen Haile Sisay, Mitike Molla Checchi, Francesco Dahab, Maysoon Endris, Bilal Shikur Ghani, Azra C. Walker, Patrick G. T. Donnelly, Christl A. Watson, Oliver J. Sci Adv Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media–conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2023-06-09 /pmc/articles/PMC10256151/ /pubmed/37294754 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg7676 Text en Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences
McCabe, Ruth
Whittaker, Charles
Sheppard, Richard J.
Abdelmagid, Nada
Ahmed, Aljaile
Alabdeen, Israa Zain
Brazeau, Nicholas F.
Ahmed Abd Elhameed, Abd Elhameed
Bin-Ghouth, Abdulla Salem
Hamlet, Arran
AbuKoura, Rahaf
Barnsley, Gregory
Hay, James A.
Alhaffar, Mervat
Koum Besson, Emilie
Saje, Semira Mitiku
Sisay, Binyam Girma
Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos
Sikamo, Adane Petros
Worku, Aschalew
Ahmed, Yakob Seman
Mariam, Damen Haile
Sisay, Mitike Molla
Checchi, Francesco
Dahab, Maysoon
Endris, Bilal Shikur
Ghani, Azra C.
Walker, Patrick G. T.
Donnelly, Christl A.
Watson, Oliver J.
Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems
title Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems
title_full Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems
title_fullStr Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems
title_full_unstemmed Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems
title_short Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems
title_sort alternative epidemic indicators for covid-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems
topic Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10256151/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37294754
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg7676
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