Assessing the risk of West Nile Virus seasonal outbreaks and its vector control in an urbanizing bird community: An integrative R(0)-modelling study in the city of Merida, Mexico

Urbanization is a global trend associated with key socio-economic issues, one of them being to control the transmission of infectious diseases to a urban fraction of the world’s population that shall reach 68% in 2050. While urban growth has been shown to favor mosquito species responsible for the transmission of the West Nile Virus (WNV), a major human arbovirosis, the effects of concomitant changes in the host bird communities remain hard to anticipate albeit essential to quantify disease risk and to plan control initiatives. We developed a R0 modelling of WNV transmission in a urban bird community to assess the risk of outbreak in Merida, one of the cities with the highest growth rate in Mexico. The model was parameterized using ecological and epidemiological data collected over the past 15-years on the local vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, and avian community. We identified a 3-weeks summer period during which the vector population strongly amplifies the WNV enzootic transmission and lead to a significant risk of outbreaks in humans. Extensive sensitivity analyses showed that urbanization induced changes in the bird community could lead to an up-to 6-fold increase in the duration of the risk period, while the daily risk could rise by 40%. Interestingly, the increase in Quiscalus mexicanus abundance had 4–5 times larger impact than any other change in the bird community. In such a context, annihilating the current and future risk of WNV outbreaks in Merida requires reducing the mosquito population by 13% and up to 56%, respectively. This study provides an integrative assessment of the current and future risks of WNV outbreak in the fast urbanizing city of Merida, and points toward the implementation of epidemiological monitoring combined with preemptive measures targeting both C. quinquefasciatus and Q. mexicanus populations, as they are expected to have synergistic effects.