Necrotic related-lncRNAs: Prediction of prognosis and differentiation between cold and hot tumors in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Treatment of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a substantial clinical challenge due to the high local recurrence rate and chemotherapeutic resistance. This project seeks to identify new potential biomarkers of prognosis prediction and precision medicine to improve this condition. A synthetic data matrix for RNA transcriptome datasets and relevant clinical information on HNSCC and normal tissues was downloaded from the Genotypic Tissue Expression Project and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). The necrosis-associated long-chain noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) were identified by Pearson correlation analysis. Then 8-necrotic-lncRNA models in the training, testing and entire sets were established through univariate Cox (uni-Cox) regression and Lasso-Cox regression. Finally, the prognostic ability of the 8-necrotic-lncRNA model was evaluated via survival analysis, nomogram, Cox regression, clinicopathological correlation analysis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Gene enrichment analysis, principal component analysis, immune analysis and prediction of risk group semi-maximum inhibitory concentration (IC(50)) were also conducted. Correlations between characteristic risk score and immune cell infiltration, immune checkpoint molecules, somatic gene mutations, and anti-cancer drug sensitivity were analyzed. Eight necrosis-associated lncRNAs (AC099850.3, AC243829.2, AL139095.4, SAP30L-AS1, C5orf66-AS1, LIN02084, LIN00996, MIR4435-2HG) were developed to improve the prognosis prediction of HNSCC patients. The risk score distribution, survival status, survival time, and relevant expression standards of these lncRNAs were compared between low- and high-risk groups in the training, testing and entire sets. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed the low-risk patients had significantly better prognosis. The ROC curves revealed the model had an acceptable predictive value in the TCGA training and testing sets. Cox regression and stratified survival analysis indicated that the 8 necrosis-associated lncRNAs were risk factors independent of various clinical parameters. We recombined the patients into 2 clusters through Consensus ClusterPlus R package according to the expressions of necrotic lncRNAs. Significant differences were found in immune cell infiltration, immune checkpoint molecules, and IC(50) between clusters, suggesting these characteristics can be used to evaluate the clinical efficacy of chemotherapy and immunotherapy. This risk model may serve as a prognostic signature and provide clues for individualized immunotherapy for HNSCC patients.