Modeling fuel consumption and emissions by taxis in Tabriz, Iran: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses

Taxis pose a higher threat to global climate change and human health through air emissions. However, the evidence on this topic is scarce, especially, in developing countries. Therefore, this study conducted estimation of fuel consumption (FC) and emission inventories on Tabriz taxi fleet (TTF), Iran. A structured questionnaire to obtain operational data of TTF, municipality organizations, and literature review were used as data sources. Then modeling was used to estimate fuel consumption ratio (FCR), emission factors (EFs), annual FC, and emissions of TTF using uncertainty analysis. Also, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic period was considered on the studied parameters. The results showed that TTF have high FCRs of 18.68 L/100 km (95% CI=17.67–19.69 L/100 km), which are not affected by age or mileage of taxis, significantly. The estimated EFs for TTF are higher than Euro standards, but the differences are not significant. However, it is critical as can be an indication of inefficiency of periodic regulatory technical inspection tests for TTF. COVID-19 pandemic caused significant decrease in annual total FC and emissions (9.03–15.6%), but significant increase in EFs of per-passenger-kilometer traveled (47.9–57.3%). Annual vehicle-kilometer-traveled by TTF and the estimated EFs for gasoline-compressed natural gas bi-fueled TTF are the main influential parameters in the variability of annual FC and emission levels. More studies on sustainable FC and emissions mitigation strategies are needed for TTF. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-023-27883-5.