Predicting Time to and Average Quality of Future Offers for Kidney Transplant Candidates Declining a Current Deceased Donor Kidney Offer: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: At the time a kidney offer is made by an organ donation organization (ODO), transplant physicians must inform candidates on the pros and cons of accepting or declining the offer. Although physicians have a general idea of expected wait time to kidney transplantation by blood group in their ODO, there are no tools that provide quantitative estimates based on the allocation score used and donor/candidate characteristics. This limits the shared decision-making process at the time of kidney offer as (1) the consequences of declining an offer in terms of wait-time prolongation cannot be provided and (2) the quality of the current offer cannot be compared with that of offers that could be made to the specific candidate in the future. This is especially relevant to older transplant candidates as many ODOs use some form of utility matching in their allocation score. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a novel method to provide personalized estimates of wait time to next offer and quality of future offers for kidney transplant candidates if they refused a current deceased donor offer from an ODO. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Administrative data from Transplant Quebec. PATIENTS: All patients who were actively registered on the kidney transplant wait list at any point between March 29, 2012 and December 13, 2017. MEASUREMENTS: The time to next offer was defined as the number of days between the time of the current offer and the next offer if the current one were declined. The quality of the offers was measured with the 10-variable Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) equation. METHODS: Candidate-specific kidney offer arrival was modeled with a marked Poisson process. To derive the lambda parameter for the marked Poisson process for each candidate, the arrival of donors was examined in the 2 years prior to the time of the current offer. The Transplant Quebec allocation score was calculated for each ABO-compatible offer with the characteristics that the candidate presented at the time of the current offer. Offers where the candidate’s score was lower than the scores of actual recipients of the second kidneys transplanted were filtered out from the candidate-specific kidney offer arrival. The KDRIs of offers that remained were averaged to provide an estimate of the quality of future offers, to be compared with that of the current offer. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 848 unique donors and 1696 transplant candidates actively registered. The models provide the following information: average time to next offer, time to which there is a 95% probability of receiving a next offer, average KDRI of future offers. The C-index of the model was 0.72. When compared with providing average group estimates of wait time and KDRI of future offers, the model reduced the root-mean-square error in the predicted time to next offer from 137 to 84 days and that of predicted KDRI of future offers from 0.64 to 0.55. The precision of the model’s predictions was higher when observed times to next offer were 5 months or less. LIMITATIONS: The models assume that patients declining an offer remain wait-listed until the next one. The model only updates wait time every year after the time of an offer and not in a continuous fashion. CONCLUSION: By providing personalized quantitative estimates of time to and quality of future offers, our new approach can inform the shared decision-making process between transplant candidates and physicians when a kidney offer from a deceased donor is made by an ODO.