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Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data
The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10259368/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37294299 http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.76609 |
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author | Pons-Salort, Margarita Lambert, Ben Kamau, Everlyn Pebody, Richard Harvala, Heli Simmonds, Peter Grassly, Nicholas C |
author_facet | Pons-Salort, Margarita Lambert, Ben Kamau, Everlyn Pebody, Richard Harvala, Heli Simmonds, Peter Grassly, Nicholas C |
author_sort | Pons-Salort, Margarita |
collection | PubMed |
description | The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately 50% increase in the annual probability of infection over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, seroprevalence data suggest that the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases. Therefore, the acquisition of or an increase in neuropathogenicity would be additionally required to explain the emergence of outbreaks of AFM. Our results provide evidence that changes in enterovirus phenotypes cause major changes in disease epidemiology. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10259368 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-102593682023-06-13 Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data Pons-Salort, Margarita Lambert, Ben Kamau, Everlyn Pebody, Richard Harvala, Heli Simmonds, Peter Grassly, Nicholas C eLife Epidemiology and Global Health The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately 50% increase in the annual probability of infection over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, seroprevalence data suggest that the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases. Therefore, the acquisition of or an increase in neuropathogenicity would be additionally required to explain the emergence of outbreaks of AFM. Our results provide evidence that changes in enterovirus phenotypes cause major changes in disease epidemiology. eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd 2023-06-09 /pmc/articles/PMC10259368/ /pubmed/37294299 http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.76609 Text en © 2023, Pons-Salort et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Epidemiology and Global Health Pons-Salort, Margarita Lambert, Ben Kamau, Everlyn Pebody, Richard Harvala, Heli Simmonds, Peter Grassly, Nicholas C Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data |
title | Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data |
title_full | Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data |
title_fullStr | Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data |
title_full_unstemmed | Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data |
title_short | Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data |
title_sort | changes in transmission of enterovirus d68 (ev-d68) in england inferred from seroprevalence data |
topic | Epidemiology and Global Health |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10259368/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37294299 http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.76609 |
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