Blood tumor mutational burden and dynamic changes in circulating tumor DNA predict response to pembrolizumab treatment in advanced non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND: The use of immunotherapy targeting the programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) and its ligand (PD-L1) has provided new hope for patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, good biomarkers are needed to identify which patients will benefit from the treatment. In this study, we investigated if circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) could predict response to pembrolizumab. METHODS: Plasma samples from patients with NSCLC treated with pembrolizumab were collected immediately before and after one or two cycles of treatment. ctDNA was isolated and analyzed using targeted next-generation sequencing with a lung cancer gene panel. RESULTS: Mutations were detected in ctDNA in 83.93% of patients before treatment initiation. High blood tumor mutational burden (bTMB), measured as the number of different mutations per Mb panel, correlated to longer progression-free survival (PFS) (10.45 vs. 2.30 months) and overall survival (OS) (21.80 vs. 12.20 months), whereas no predictive value was found in the number of mutant molecules per mL of plasma. The absence of mutations just after treatment initiation correlated with improved PFS (20.25 vs. 4.18 months) and OS (28.93 vs. 15.33 months). High bTMB before treatment was associated with a decreasing ctDNA level after treatment initiation. Importantly, a subgroup of patients experienced an increase in the ctDNA level after treatment initiation, and this correlated with inferior PFS (2.19 vs. 11.21 months) and OS (7.76 vs. 24.20 months). All patients in the subgroup with increased ctDNA level progressed within 10 months. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring of ctDNA contains vital information about response to therapy, where the bTMB and the dynamics in the initial part of treatment are particularly important for response. Increasing ctDNA levels after treatment initiation are significantly correlated with inferior survival.