Temporal and coevolutionary analyses reveal the events driving the emergence and circulation of human mamastroviruses

Characterized by high genetic diversity, broad host range, and resistance to adverse conditions, coupled with recent reports of neurotropic astroviruses circulating in humans, mamastroviruses pose a threat to public health. The current astrovirus classification system based on host source prevents determining whether strains with distinct tropism or virulence are emerging. By using integrated phylogeny, we propose a standardized demarcation of species and genotypes, with reproducible cut-off values that reconcile the pairwise sequence distribution, genetic distances between lineages, and the topological reconstruction of the Mamastrovirus genus. We further define the various links established by co-evolution and resolve the dynamics of transmission chains to identify host-jump events and the sources from which different mamastrovirus species circulating in humans have emerged. We observed that recombination is relatively infrequent and restricted to within genotypes. The well-known “human” astrovirus, defined here as mamastrovirus species 7, has co-speciated with humans, while there have been two additional host-jumps into humans from distinct hosts. Newly defined species 6 genotype 2, linked to severe gastroenteritis in children, resulted from a marmot to human jump taking place ∼200 years ago while species 6 genotype 7 (MastV-Sp6Gt7), linked to neurological disease in immunocompromised patients, jumped from bovines only ∼50 years ago. Through demographic reconstruction, we determined that the latter reached coalescent viral population growth only 20 years ago and is evolving at a much higher evolutionary rate than other genotypes infecting humans. This study constitutes mounting evidence of MastV-Sp6Gt7 active circulation and highlights the need for diagnostics capable of detecting it.