Reduced vmPFC-insula functional connectivity in generalized anxiety disorder: a Bayesian confirmation study

Differences in the correlated activity of networked brain regions have been reported in individuals with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) but an overreliance on null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST) limits the identification of disorder-relevant relationships. In this preregistered study, we applied both a Bayesian statistical framework and NHST to the analysis of resting-state fMRI scans from females with GAD and matched healthy comparison females. Eleven a-priori hypotheses about functional connectivity (FC) were evaluated using Bayesian (multilevel model) and frequentist (t-test) inference. Reduced FC between the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and the posterior-mid insula (PMI) was confirmed by both statistical approaches and was associated with anxiety sensitivity. FC between the vmPFC-anterior insula, the amygdala-PMI, and the amygdala-dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) region pairs did not survive multiple comparison correction using the frequentist approach. However, the Bayesian model provided evidence for these region pairs having decreased FC in the GAD group. Leveraging Bayesian modeling, we demonstrate decreased FC of the vmPFC, insula, amygdala, and dlPFC in females with GAD. Exploiting the Bayesian framework revealed FC abnormalities between region pairs excluded by the frequentist analysis and other previously undescribed regions in GAD, demonstrating the value of applying this approach to resting-state FC data in clinical investigations.