Predicting post-operative vault and optimal implantable collamer lens size using machine learning based on various ophthalmic device combinations

BACKGROUND: Implantable Collamer Lens (ICL) surgery has been proven to be a safe, effective, and predictable method for correcting myopia and myopic astigmatism. However, predicting the vault and ideal ICL size remains technically challenging. Despite the growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in ophthalmology, no AI studies have provided available choices of different instruments and combinations for further vault and size predictions. This study aimed to fill this gap and predict post-operative vault and appropriate ICL size utilizing the comparison of numerous AI algorithms, stacking ensemble learning, and data from various ophthalmic devices and combinations. RESULTS: This retrospective and cross-sectional study included 1941 eyes of 1941 patients from Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center. For both vault prediction and ICL size selection, the combination containing Pentacam, Sirius, and UBM demonstrated the best results in test sets [R(2) = 0.499 (95% CI 0.470–0.528), mean absolute error = 130.655 (95% CI 128.949–132.111), accuracy = 0.895 (95% CI 0.883–0.907), AUC = 0.928 (95% CI 0.916–0.941)]. Sulcus-to-sulcus (STS), a parameter from UBM, ranked among the top five significant contributors to both post-operative vault and optimal ICL size prediction, consistently outperforming white-to-white (WTW). Moreover, dual-device combinations or single-device parameters could also effectively predict vault and ideal ICL size, and excellent ICL selection prediction was achievable using only UBM parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies based on multiple machine learning algorithms for different ophthalmic devices and combinations are applicable for vault predicting and ICL sizing, potentially improving the safety of the ICL implantation. Moreover, our findings emphasize the crucial role of UBM in the perioperative period of ICL surgery, as it provides key STS measurements that outperformed WTW measurements in predicting post-operative vault and optimal ICL size, highlighting its potential to enhance ICL implantation safety and accuracy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12938-023-01123-w.