Efficient protection of the Baltic Sea needs a revision of phosphorus metric

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is driven by phosphorus and nitrogen. While the anthropogenic point source loads of both nutrients have decreased markedly, further reductions are needed. This is true particularly for phosphorus, as highlighted by its stringent abatement targets in HELCOM’s Baltic Sea Action Plan. To meet the targets, more results need to be achieved in non-point source abatement, specifically from agricultural sources. The growing pressure for phosphorus abatement from agriculture may lead to environmentally and economically inefficient outcomes unless we account for the variability in how different forms of phosphorus respond to abatement measures, and how these forms contribute to eutrophication. The precautionary and efficiency improving way to advance policies is to either replace or supplement the Total Phosphorus metric with a metric more accurate in reflecting the biologically available phosphorus. This policy fix becomes more important as the relative share of agricultural emissions of total pollution increases. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-023-01851-2.