Cargando…
Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia
This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design based on n =...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2023
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10272129/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37322048 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36169-2 |
_version_ | 1785059424677658624 |
---|---|
author | Belvis, Francesc Aleta, Alberto Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro Pericàs, Juan-M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Rodríguez, Jorge P. Eguíluz, Víctor M. De Santana, Charles Novaes Julià, Mireia Benach, Joan |
author_facet | Belvis, Francesc Aleta, Alberto Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro Pericàs, Juan-M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Rodríguez, Jorge P. Eguíluz, Víctor M. De Santana, Charles Novaes Julià, Mireia Benach, Joan |
author_sort | Belvis, Francesc |
collection | PubMed |
description | This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design based on n = 371 health-care geographical units is used. Five general outbreaks are described, systematically preceded by generalized values of R(t) > 1 in the two previous weeks. No clear regularities concerning possible initial focus appear when comparing waves. As for autocorrelation, we identify a wave’s baseline pattern in which global Moran’s I increases rapidly in the first weeks of the outbreak to descend later. However, some waves significantly depart from the baseline. In the simulations, both baseline pattern and departures can be reproduced when measures aimed at reducing mobility and virus transmissibility are introduced. Spatial autocorrelation is inherently contingent on the outbreak phase and is also substantially modified by external interventions affecting human behavior. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10272129 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-102721292023-06-17 Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia Belvis, Francesc Aleta, Alberto Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro Pericàs, Juan-M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Rodríguez, Jorge P. Eguíluz, Víctor M. De Santana, Charles Novaes Julià, Mireia Benach, Joan Sci Rep Article This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design based on n = 371 health-care geographical units is used. Five general outbreaks are described, systematically preceded by generalized values of R(t) > 1 in the two previous weeks. No clear regularities concerning possible initial focus appear when comparing waves. As for autocorrelation, we identify a wave’s baseline pattern in which global Moran’s I increases rapidly in the first weeks of the outbreak to descend later. However, some waves significantly depart from the baseline. In the simulations, both baseline pattern and departures can be reproduced when measures aimed at reducing mobility and virus transmissibility are introduced. Spatial autocorrelation is inherently contingent on the outbreak phase and is also substantially modified by external interventions affecting human behavior. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-06-15 /pmc/articles/PMC10272129/ /pubmed/37322048 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36169-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Belvis, Francesc Aleta, Alberto Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro Pericàs, Juan-M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Rodríguez, Jorge P. Eguíluz, Víctor M. De Santana, Charles Novaes Julià, Mireia Benach, Joan Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
title | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
title_full | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
title_fullStr | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
title_full_unstemmed | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
title_short | Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia |
title_sort | key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of covid-19 in catalonia |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10272129/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37322048 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36169-2 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT belvisfrancesc keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT aletaalberto keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT padillapozoalvaro keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT pericasjuanm keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT fernandezgraciajuan keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT rodriguezjorgep keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT eguiluzvictorm keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT desantanacharlesnovaes keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT juliamireia keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT benachjoan keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia AT keyepidemiologicalindicatorsandspatialautocorrelationpatternsacrossfivewavesofcovid19incatalonia |