Global, regional, and national trends in mesothelioma burden from 1990 to 2019 and the predictions for the next two decades

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyze the secular trends in mesothelioma burden, the effect of age, period, and birth cohort, and project the global burden over time. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Based on the mesothelioma incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data from 1990 to 2019 in Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC), calculated from joinpoint regression model, was used to describe the burden trends. An age-period-cohort model was utilized to disentangle age, period, and birth cohort effects on mesothelioma incidence and mortality trends. The mesothelioma burden was projected by the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. RESULTS: Globally, there were the significant declines in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (AAPC = −0.4, 95%CI: −0.6,−0.3, P < 0.001), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (AAPC = −0.3, 95%CI: −0.4,−0.2, P < 0.001), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) (AAPC = −0.5, 95%CI: −0.6,−0.4, P < 0.001) of mesothelioma overall 30 years. For regions, Central Europe presented the most distinct increases and the most substantial decrease was observed in Andean Latin America on all ASRs (age-standardized rates) from 1990 to 2019. At national level, the largest annualized growth for full-range trends of incidence, mortality, and DALYs was in Georgia. Conversely, the fastest descent of all ASRs was observed in Peru. The ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR in 2039 predicted 0.33, 0.27, and 6.90 per 100,000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of mesothelioma declined over the past 30 years, with variability across regions and countries/territories, and this trend will continue in the future.