The role of environmental factors on sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease mortality: evidence from an age-period-cohort analysis

Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) is the most common form of prion diseases. The causes of sCJD are still unknown and exogenous factors may play a role. Worldwide, the number of patients with sCJD has progressively increased over time. This increase can be partly explained by increasing life expectancy and better case ascertainment, but a true increase in the number of sCJD cases cannot be excluded. We estimated mortality rates from sCJD in France (1992–2016) and studied variation in mortality rates by age, period, and time. We included all cases aged 45–89 years old who died with a probable/definite sCJD diagnosis based on the French national surveillance network. We used age-period-cohort (APC) Poisson regression models to study variation in mortality rates by sex, age, period, and time. A total of 2475 sCJD cases aged 45–89 years were included. Mortality rates increased with age, reached a peak between 75 and 79 years, and decreased thereafter. Mortality rates were higher in women than men at younger ages and lower at older ages. The full APC model with a sex×age interaction provided the best fit to the data, thus in favour of sex, age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. In particular, mortality rates increased progressively with successive birth cohorts. Based on 25 years of active surveillance in France, we show evidence for sex, age, period, and cohort effects on sCJD mortality. The identification of cohort effects suggests that environmental exposures may play a role in sCJD etiology. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-023-01004-5.