Patients with prediabetes are at greater risk of developing diabetes 5 months postacute SARS-CoV-2 infection: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: Patients with prediabetes who contract SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) could be at higher risk of developing frank diabetes compared those who do not. This study aims to investigate the incidence of new-onset diabetes in patients with prediabetes after COVID-19 and if it differs from those not infected. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using electronic medical record data, 42 877 patients with COVID-19, 3102 were identified as having a history of prediabetes in the Montefiore Health System, Bronx, New York. During the same time period, 34 786 individuals without COVID-19 with history of prediabetes were identified and 9306 were propensity matched as controls. SARS-CoV-2 infection status was determined by a real-time PCR test between March 11, 2020 and August 17, 2022. The primary outcomes were new-onset in-hospital diabetes mellitus (I-DM) and new-onset persistent diabetes mellitus (P-DM) at 5 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: Compared with hospitalized patients without COVID-19 with history of prediabetes, hospitalized patients with COVID-19 with history of prediabetes had a higher incidence of I-DM (21.9% vs 6.02%, p<0.001) and of P-DM 5 months postinfection (14.75% vs 7.51%, p<0.001). Non-hospitalized patients with and without COVID-19 with history of prediabetes had similar incidence of P-DM (4.15% and 4.1%, p>0.05). Critical illness (HR 4.6 (95% CI 3.5 to 6.1), p<0.005), in-hospital steroid treatment (HR 2.88 (95% CI 2.2 to 3.8), p<0.005), SARS-CoV-2 infection status (HR 1.8 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.3), p<0.005), and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) (HR 1.7 (95% CI 1.6 to 1.8), p<0.005) were significant predictors of I-DM. I-DM (HR 23.2 (95% CI 16.1 to 33.4), p<0.005), critical illness (HR 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.8), p<0.005), and HbA1c (HR 1.3 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.4), p<0.005) were significant predictors of P-DM at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infection confers a higher risk for developing persistent diabetes 5 months post-COVID-19 in patients with prediabetes who were hospitalized for COVID-19 compared with COVID-19-negative counterparts with prediabetes. In-hospital diabetes, critical illness, and elevated HbA1c are risk factors for developing persistent diabetes. Patients with prediabetes with severe COVID-19 disease may need more diligent monitoring for developing P-DM postacute SARS-CoV-2 infection.