An improved nomogram including elastography for the prediction of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 sentinel lymph node metastases

BACKGROUND: The rate of breast-conserving surgery is very low in China, compared with that in developed countries; most breast cancer patients receive mastectomy. It is great important to explore the possibility of omitting axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) in China. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on elastography for the prediction of the risk of non-SLN (NSLN) metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs. METHODS: A total of 601 breast cancer patients were initially recruited. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 118 early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs were finally enrolled and were assigned to the training cohort (n=82) and the validation cohort (n=36), respectively. In the training cohort, the independent predictors were screened by logistic regression analysis and then were used to conducted the nomogram for the prediction of NSLN metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs. The calibration curves, concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to verified the performance of the nomogram. RESULTS: The multivariable analysis showed that the enrolled patients with positive HER2 expression (OR=6.179, P=0.013), Ki67≥14% (OR=8.976, P=0.015), larger lesion size (OR=1.038, P=0.045), and higher Emean (OR=2.237, P=0.006) were observed to be the independent factors of NSLN metastasis. Based on the above four independent predictors, a nomogram was conducted to predict the risk of the NSLN metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs. The nomogram showed good discrimination in the prediction of NSLN metastasis, with bias-corrected C-index of 0.855 (95% CI, 0.754-0.956) and 0.853 (95% CI, 0.724-0.983) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, the AUC was 0.877 (95%CI: 0.776- 0.978) and 0.861 (95%CI: 0.732-0.991), respectively, indicating a good performance of the nomogram. The calibration curve suggested a satisfactory agreement between the predictive and actual risk in both the training (χ2 = 11.484, P=0.176, HL test) and validation (χ2 = 6.247, p = 0.620, HL test) cohorts, and the obvious clinical nets were revealed by DCA. CONCLUSIONS: We conducted a satisfactory nomogram model to evaluate the risk of NSLN metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 SLN metastases. This model could be considered as an ancillary tool to help such patients to be selectively exempted from ALND.