Serum progesterone on the day of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) trigger as a predictor of in-vitro fertilization (IVF) outcome - a retrospective analysis of seven years

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between progesterone (P4) levels on the day of hCG trigger and IVF outcomes. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of IVF cycles from January-2013 to December-2019 from a single center. Women (21-39 years) submitted to IVF treatment for various infertility factors were included, while donor oocyte cycles and cancelled cycles were excluded from the study. The primary outcome measure was live birth rate. RESULTS: A total of 2149 cycles were analyzed. Of these, 223 (10.38%) were in the low P4 group (<0.5 ng/ml), 1163 (54.12%) in the normal P4 group (0.5-1.5 ng/ml), and 763 (35.50%) in the high P4 group (>1.5ng/ml). The groups were comparable with respect to age, factor of infertility and baseline AMH. The antagonist protocol was significantly more prescribed to the high P4 group (p<0.001). Live birth rates were 14.4%, 21.6%, and 21% (p<0.001), respectively, in three groups. Univariate analysis found that total cetrotide dose, total number of retrieved and fertilized oocytes, total number of embryos formed, transferred, and vitrified, and P4 on the day of hCG (p<0.001) were statistically significant after adjusting for age and BMI. In multivariate logistic regression after adjusting for age and BMI, only high P4 (aOR:0.60; p<0.001), total cetrotide dose (aOR: 0.82; p<0.001), and total utilizable embryos (aOR:1.11; p=0.029) were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Having an elevated serum progesterone level on the day of hCG trigger was associated with lower pregnancy rates, but this is still not a robust marker to predict live births. More good quality evidence is needed.