Malignancy risk factors and prognostic variables of pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms in Chinese patients

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCNs) represent one of the precursor lesions of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, and their detection has been facilitated by advances in preoperative imaging. Due primarily to the rarity of MCNs, however, there is limited knowledge regarding the prognostic variables and high-risk factors for malignant transformation. A more comprehensive and nuanced approach is necessary to fill this gap and provide a basis for improved treatment decisions and patient outcomes. AIM: To investigate the high-risk factors associated with malignant MCNs and to explore the prognostic factors of MCN with associated invasive carcinoma (MCN-AIC). METHODS: All cases of resected MCNs from a single high-volume institution between January 2012 and January 2022 were retrospectively reviewed. Only cases with ovarian-type stroma verified by progesterone receptor staining were included. Preoperative features, histological findings and postoperative course were documented. Multivariate logistic regression was employed to investigate variables related to malignancy. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier curve, and the prognostic factors were assessed to evaluate the postoperative course of patients with MCN-AIC. RESULTS: Among the 48 patients, 36 had benign MCNs, and 12 had malignant MCNs (1 high-grade atypical hyperplasia and 11 MCN-AIC). Age, tumour size, presence of solid components or mural nodules and pancreatic duct dilatation were identified as independent risk factors associated with malignancy. The follow-up period ranged from 12 mo to 120 mo, with a median overall survival of 58.2 mo. Only three patients with MCN-AIC died, and the 5-year survival rate was 70.1%. All 11 cases of MCN-AIC were stage I, and extracapsular invasion was identified as a prognostic factor for poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: The risk factors independently associated with malignant transformation of MCNs included age, tumour size, presence of solid components or mural nodules, and pancreatic duct dilatation. Our study also revealed that encapsulated invasion was a favourable prognostic factor in MCN-AIC patients.