Novel Prognostic Nomogram to Predict Progression-Free Survival of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Transarterial Chemoembolization

PURPOSE: A retrospective analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) to identify risk factors was conducted, and a novel predictive nomogram model was constructed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 346 HCC patients who underwent TACE as initial treatment were retrospectively included, of which 208 were randomly allocated to the derivation cohort and 138 were allocated to the validation cohort. Progression-free survival (PFS) was used as the follow-up endpoint according to mRECIST. Kaplan‒Meier analysis and the Cox regression model screened out some indicators associated with short-term prognosis, and R language was further used to construct a nomogram model. The nomogram was compared with the classical BCLC staging system. RESULTS: The independent predictors affecting PFS in HCC patients undergoing TACE included the following: 1. Baseline indicators: age (P=0.013), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade (grade 2 vs grade 1, P=0.029; grade 3 vs grade 1, P<0.001), and portal vein tumour thrombus (PVTT, P<0.001); 2. Indicators at the 1-month follow-up: Neutrophil To Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR, P=0.032) and changes in alpha-fetoprotein (AFP, P<0.05) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP, P<0.001); and 3. Cumulative treatment numbers of TACE in 6 months (P=0.007). In the derivation cohort, the calibration curve of the nomogram showed a high consistency between the predicted and actual PFS probability, and the nomogram outperformed the BCLC staging system (P=0.004). This result was also confirmed in the validation cohort (P=0.012). CONCLUSION: The constructed nomogram was suggested to have good predictive efficacy and could be used as a complementary assessment to predict the survival and prognosis of HCC patients treated with TACE.