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Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm

Predicting the specific magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic of individual local outbreaks is critical for infectious disease control. Previous studies have indicated that significant differences in spatial transmission and epidemic magnitude of dengue were influenced by multiple factors,...

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Autores principales: Zeng, Qinghui, Yu, Xiaolin, Ni, Haobo, Xiao, Lina, Xu, Ting, Wu, Haisheng, Chen, Yuliang, Deng, Hui, Zhang, Yingtao, Pei, Sen, Xiao, Jianpeng, Guo, Pi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10281582/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37285385
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011418
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author Zeng, Qinghui
Yu, Xiaolin
Ni, Haobo
Xiao, Lina
Xu, Ting
Wu, Haisheng
Chen, Yuliang
Deng, Hui
Zhang, Yingtao
Pei, Sen
Xiao, Jianpeng
Guo, Pi
author_facet Zeng, Qinghui
Yu, Xiaolin
Ni, Haobo
Xiao, Lina
Xu, Ting
Wu, Haisheng
Chen, Yuliang
Deng, Hui
Zhang, Yingtao
Pei, Sen
Xiao, Jianpeng
Guo, Pi
author_sort Zeng, Qinghui
collection PubMed
description Predicting the specific magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic of individual local outbreaks is critical for infectious disease control. Previous studies have indicated that significant differences in spatial transmission and epidemic magnitude of dengue were influenced by multiple factors, such as mosquito population density, climatic conditions, and population movement patterns. However, there is a lack of studies that combine the above factors to explain their complex nonlinear relationships in dengue transmission and generate accurate predictions. Therefore, to study the complex spatial diffusion of dengue, this research combined the above factors and developed a network model for spatiotemporal transmission prediction of dengue fever using metapopulation networks based on human mobility. For improving the prediction accuracy of the epidemic model, the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF), a data assimilation algorithm, was used to iteratively assimilate the observed case data and adjust the model and parameters. Our study demonstrated that the metapopulation network-EAKF system provided accurate predictions for city-level dengue transmission trajectories in retrospective forecasts of 12 cities in Guangdong province, China. Specifically, the system accurately predicts local dengue outbreak magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic up to 10 wk in advance. In addition, the system predicted the peak time, peak intensity, and total number of dengue cases more accurately than isolated city-specific forecasts. The general metapopulation assimilation framework presented in our study provides a methodological foundation for establishing an accurate system with finer temporal and spatial resolution for retrospectively forecasting the magnitude and temporal peak of dengue fever outbreaks. These forecasts based on the proposed method can be interoperated to better support intervention decisions and inform the public of potential risks of disease transmission.
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spelling pubmed-102815822023-06-21 Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm Zeng, Qinghui Yu, Xiaolin Ni, Haobo Xiao, Lina Xu, Ting Wu, Haisheng Chen, Yuliang Deng, Hui Zhang, Yingtao Pei, Sen Xiao, Jianpeng Guo, Pi PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Predicting the specific magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic of individual local outbreaks is critical for infectious disease control. Previous studies have indicated that significant differences in spatial transmission and epidemic magnitude of dengue were influenced by multiple factors, such as mosquito population density, climatic conditions, and population movement patterns. However, there is a lack of studies that combine the above factors to explain their complex nonlinear relationships in dengue transmission and generate accurate predictions. Therefore, to study the complex spatial diffusion of dengue, this research combined the above factors and developed a network model for spatiotemporal transmission prediction of dengue fever using metapopulation networks based on human mobility. For improving the prediction accuracy of the epidemic model, the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF), a data assimilation algorithm, was used to iteratively assimilate the observed case data and adjust the model and parameters. Our study demonstrated that the metapopulation network-EAKF system provided accurate predictions for city-level dengue transmission trajectories in retrospective forecasts of 12 cities in Guangdong province, China. Specifically, the system accurately predicts local dengue outbreak magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic up to 10 wk in advance. In addition, the system predicted the peak time, peak intensity, and total number of dengue cases more accurately than isolated city-specific forecasts. The general metapopulation assimilation framework presented in our study provides a methodological foundation for establishing an accurate system with finer temporal and spatial resolution for retrospectively forecasting the magnitude and temporal peak of dengue fever outbreaks. These forecasts based on the proposed method can be interoperated to better support intervention decisions and inform the public of potential risks of disease transmission. Public Library of Science 2023-06-07 /pmc/articles/PMC10281582/ /pubmed/37285385 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011418 Text en © 2023 Zeng et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Zeng, Qinghui
Yu, Xiaolin
Ni, Haobo
Xiao, Lina
Xu, Ting
Wu, Haisheng
Chen, Yuliang
Deng, Hui
Zhang, Yingtao
Pei, Sen
Xiao, Jianpeng
Guo, Pi
Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm
title Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm
title_full Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm
title_fullStr Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm
title_full_unstemmed Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm
title_short Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm
title_sort dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and kalman filter algorithm
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10281582/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37285385
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011418
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