Human papillomavirus vaccine effect against human papillomavirus infection in Rwanda: evidence from repeated cross-sectional cervical-cell-based surveys

BACKGROUND: Rwanda was the first African country to implement national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination (against types HPV6, 11, 16, and 18). In 2011, a school-based catch-up programme was initiated to vaccinate girls aged younger than 15 years but it also reached older girls in schools. We aimed to estimate the population-level effect of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence. METHODS: Cross-sectional surveys were done between July, 2013, and April, 2014 (baseline), and between March, 2019, and December, 2020 (repeat), in sexually active women aged 17–29 years at health centres in the Nyarugenge District of Kigali, Rwanda. HPV prevalence was assessed in cervical cell samples collected by a health-care worker in PreservCyt solution (Cytyc, Boxbourough, MA, USA) and tested using a general primer (GP5+ or GP6+)-mediated PCR. Adjusted overall, total, and indirect (herd immunity) vaccine effectiveness was computed as the percentage of HPV detection among all women and among unvaccinated women. FINDINGS: 1501 participants completed the baseline survey and 1639 completed the repeat survey. HPV vaccine-type prevalence in participants aged 17–29 years decreased from 12% (173 of 1501) in the baseline survey to 5% (89 of 1639) in the repeat survey, with an adjusted overall vaccine effectiveness of 47% (95% CI 31 to 60) and an adjusted indirect vaccine effectiveness of 32% (9 to 49). Among participants aged 17–23 years, who were eligible for catch-up vaccination, the adjusted overall vaccine effectiveness was 52% (35 to 65) and the adjusted indirect vaccine effectiveness was 36% (8 to 55), with important heterogeneity according to education (overall vaccine effectiveness was 68% [51 to 79] in participants with ≥6 years of school completed and 16% [–34 to 47] in those with <6 years) and HIV status (overall vaccine effectiveness was 55% [36 to 69] for HIV-negative participants and 24% [–62 to 64] for HIV-positive participants). INTERPRETATION: In Rwanda, the prevalence of vaccine-targeted HPV types has been significantly decreased by the HPV vaccine programme, most notably in women who were attending school during the catch-up programme in 2011. HPV vaccine coverage and population-level impact is expected to increase in future cohorts who are eligible for routine HPV vaccination at age 12 years. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.