Evaluating the performance of different Bayesian count models in modelling childhood vaccine uptake among children aged 12–23 months in Nigeria

BACKGROUND: Choosing appropriate models for count health outcomes remains a challenge to public health researchers and the validity of the findings thereof. For count data, the mean–variance relationship and proportion of zeros is a major determinant of model choice. This study aims to compare and identify the best Bayesian count modelling technique for the number of childhood vaccine uptake in Nigeria. METHODS: We explored the performances of Poisson, negative binomial and their zero-inflated forms in the Bayesian framework using cross-sectional data pooled from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey conducted between 2003 and 2018. In multivariable analysis, these Bayesian models were used to identify factors associated with the number of vaccine uptake among children. Model selection was based on the -2 Log-Likelihood (-2 Log LL), Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Information Criterion (LOOIC) and Watanabe-Akaike/Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC). RESULTS: Exploratory analysis showed the presence of excess zeros and overdispersion with a mean of 4.36 and a variance of 12.86. Observably, there was a significant increase in vaccine uptake over time. Significant factors included the mother’s age, level of education, religion, occupation, desire for last-child, place of delivery, exposure to media, birth order of the child, wealth status, number of antenatal care visits, postnatal attendance, healthcare decision maker, community poverty, community illiteracy, community unemployment, rural proportion and number of health facilities per 100,000. The zero-inflated negative binomial model was best fit with -2Log LL of -27171.47, LOOIC of 54464.2, and WAIC of 54588.0. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial model was most appropriate to identify factors associated with the number of childhood vaccines received in Nigeria due to the presence of excess zeros and overdispersion. Improving vaccine uptake by addressing the associated risk factors should be promptly embraced.