Epidemic intelligence data of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, European Region, 2012 to 2022: a new opportunity for risk mapping of neglected diseases

BACKGROUND: The Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS) system, jointly developed by the World Health Organisation (WHO), the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and various partners, is a web-based platform that facilitate the monitoring of information on public health threats in near real-time from thousands of online sources. AIMS: To assess the capacity of the EIOS system to strengthen data collection for neglected diseases of public health importance, and to evaluate the use of EIOS data for improving the understanding of the geographic extents of diseases and their level of risk. METHODS: A Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model was implemented to map the risk of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) occurrence in 52 countries and territories within the European Region between January 2012 and March 2022 using data on CCHF occurrence retrieved from the EIOS system. RESULTS: The model found a positive association between all temperature-related variables and the probability of CCHF occurrence, with an increased risk in warmer and drier areas. The highest risk of CCHF was found in the Mediterranean basin and in areas bordering the Black Sea. There was a general decreasing risk trend from south to north across the entire European Region. CONCLUSION: The study highlights that the information gathered by public health intelligence can be used to build a disease risk map. Internet-based sources could aid in the assessment of new or changing risks and planning effective actions in target areas.