Risk of HIV Viral Rebound in the Era of Universal Treatment in a Multicenter Sample of Persons With HIV in Primary Care

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for people with HIV (PWH), irrespective of CD4 cell count, to improve their health and reduce the risk of transmission to sexual partners through long-term viral suppression. We identified risk factors for viral rebound among patients with a period of stable viral suppression to inform counseling and monitoring. METHODS: We conducted a multisite, retrospective study of PWH with a 2-year period of sustained viral suppression in the United States using the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify characteristics independently associated with any viral rebound (viral load [VL] ≥200 copies/mL) and sustained viral rebound (VL ≥200 copies/mL followed by a VL that was also ≥200 copies/mL within 6 months), within 2 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Among 3496 eligible patients with a 2-year period of sustained viral suppression, most (90%) continued to have viral suppression over 2 additional years; 10% experienced viral rebound, and 4% experienced sustained viral rebound. In multivariable analyses, Black race, current smoking, integrase strand transfer inhibitor use, and 5- to 9-year duration of ART were positively associated, and being age ≥50 years was negatively associated, with any viral rebound. Only current smoking and 5- to 9-year (vs 2- to 4-year) duration of ART were positively associated, and being age ≥60 years was negatively associated, with sustained viral rebound. CONCLUSIONS: Most people retained in clinical care and with HIV viral suppression on ART will have persistent viral suppression. However, some patients may benefit from additional treatment adherence support.