Predicting the number of lifetime divisions for hematopoietic stem cells from telomere length measurements

How many times does a typical hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) divide to maintain a daily production of over [Formula: see text] blood cells over a human lifetime? It has been predicted that relatively few, slowly dividing HSCs occupy the top of the hematopoietic hierarchy. However, tracking HSCs directly is extremely challenging due to their rarity. Here, we utilize previously published data documenting the loss of telomeric DNA repeats in granulocytes, to draw inferences about HSC division rates, the timing of major changes in those rates, as well as lifetime division totals. Our method uses segmented regression to identify the best candidate representations of the telomere length data. Our method predicts that, on average, an HSC divides 56 times over an 85-year lifespan (with lower and upper bounds of 36 and 120, respectively), with half of these divisions during the first 24 years of life.