Construction and validation of prognostic models in critically Ill patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury: interpretable machine learning approach

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in critically ill patients with sepsis and is often associated with a poor prognosis. We aimed to construct and validate an interpretable prognostic prediction model for patients with sepsis-associated AKI (S-AKI) using machine learning (ML) methods. METHODS: Data on the training cohort were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database version 2.2 to build the model, and data of patients were extracted from Hangzhou First People's Hospital Affiliated to Zhejiang University School of Medicine for external validation of model. Predictors of mortality were identified using Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE). Then, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), multilayer perceptron classifier, support vector classifier, and logistic regression were used to establish a prognosis prediction model for 7, 14, and 28 days after intensive care unit (ICU) admission, respectively. Prediction performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were used to interpret the ML models. RESULTS: In total, 2599 patients with S-AKI were included in the analysis. Forty variables were selected for the model development. According to the areas under the ROC curve (AUC) and DCA results for the training cohort, XGBoost model exhibited excellent performance with F1 Score of 0.847, 0.715, 0.765 and AUC (95% CI) of 0.91 (0.90, 0.92), 0.78 (0.76, 0.80), and 0.83 (0.81, 0.85) in 7 days, 14 days and 28 days group, respectively. It also demonstrated excellent discrimination in the external validation cohort. Its AUC (95% CI) was 0.81 (0.79, 0.83), 0.75 (0.73, 0.77), 0.79 (0.77, 0.81) in 7 days, 14 days and 28 days group, respectively. SHAP-based summary plot and force plot were used to interpret the XGBoost model globally and locally. CONCLUSIONS: ML is a reliable tool for predicting the prognosis of patients with S-AKI. SHAP methods were used to explain intrinsic information of the XGBoost model, which may prove clinically useful and help clinicians tailor precise management. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-023-04205-4.