Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Nd:YAG Laser Capsulotomy: A Retrospective Cohort Study of 9768 eyes

INTRODUCTION: Posterior capsular opacification (PCO) is the most common complication of cataract surgery. In this study, we develop a model to quantitatively predict the probability of Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy for vision-threatening PCO to improve the life quality of postoperative patients. METHODS: A registry analysis of cataract procedures performed between the years 2010 and 2021. Following the screening of 16,802 patients (25,883 eyes), 9768 patients (eyes) were enrolled. The cohort was randomly divided into two groups: training (n = 6838) and validation (n = 2930). To identify relevant risk factors, univariate, multivariate, and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm Cox regression analysis were employed, and a nomogram was created to demonstrate the prediction result. RESULTS: At 5 years, the overall cumulative incidence of Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy was 12.0% (1169/9768). The following variables were included in the prediction model: sex [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.53, 95% CI 1.32–1.76], age (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.56–0.88), intraocular lens (IOL) material (HR = 2.65, 95% CI 2.17–3.24), high myopia (HR = 2.28, 95% CI 1.90–2.75), and fibrinogen (HR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.72–0.88). In the validation cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) of 1-, 3-, and 5-year predictions for Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy were 0.702, 0.691, and 0.688, respectively. For a subgroup of patients with high myopia, the protective effect of hydrophobic IOL disappeared (HR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.51–1.12, P = 0.127). CONCLUSION: This model could predict the probability of Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy for vision-threatening PCO after cataract surgery by taking into account factors such as age, gender, IOL material, high myopia, and fibrinogen. Meanwhile, implantation of a hydrophobic IOL in individuals with high myopia did not demonstrate a protective impact against vision-threatening PCO.