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Widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces electoral competition

Congressional district lines in many US states are drawn by partisan actors, raising concerns about gerrymandering. To separate the partisan effects of redistricting from the effects of other factors including geography and redistricting rules, we compare possible party compositions of the US House...

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Autores principales: Kenny, Christopher T., McCartan, Cory, Simko, Tyler, Kuriwaki, Shiro, Imai, Kosuke
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10288623/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37310996
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2217322120
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author Kenny, Christopher T.
McCartan, Cory
Simko, Tyler
Kuriwaki, Shiro
Imai, Kosuke
author_facet Kenny, Christopher T.
McCartan, Cory
Simko, Tyler
Kuriwaki, Shiro
Imai, Kosuke
author_sort Kenny, Christopher T.
collection PubMed
description Congressional district lines in many US states are drawn by partisan actors, raising concerns about gerrymandering. To separate the partisan effects of redistricting from the effects of other factors including geography and redistricting rules, we compare possible party compositions of the US House under the enacted plan to those under a set of alternative simulated plans that serve as a nonpartisan baseline. We find that partisan gerrymandering is widespread in the 2020 redistricting cycle, but most of the electoral bias it creates cancels at the national level, giving Republicans two additional seats on average. Geography and redistricting rules separately contribute a moderate pro-Republican bias. Finally, we find that partisan gerrymandering reduces electoral competition and makes the partisan composition of the US House less responsive to shifts in the national vote.
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spelling pubmed-102886232023-06-24 Widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces electoral competition Kenny, Christopher T. McCartan, Cory Simko, Tyler Kuriwaki, Shiro Imai, Kosuke Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Social Sciences Congressional district lines in many US states are drawn by partisan actors, raising concerns about gerrymandering. To separate the partisan effects of redistricting from the effects of other factors including geography and redistricting rules, we compare possible party compositions of the US House under the enacted plan to those under a set of alternative simulated plans that serve as a nonpartisan baseline. We find that partisan gerrymandering is widespread in the 2020 redistricting cycle, but most of the electoral bias it creates cancels at the national level, giving Republicans two additional seats on average. Geography and redistricting rules separately contribute a moderate pro-Republican bias. Finally, we find that partisan gerrymandering reduces electoral competition and makes the partisan composition of the US House less responsive to shifts in the national vote. National Academy of Sciences 2023-06-13 2023-06-20 /pmc/articles/PMC10288623/ /pubmed/37310996 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2217322120 Text en Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Social Sciences
Kenny, Christopher T.
McCartan, Cory
Simko, Tyler
Kuriwaki, Shiro
Imai, Kosuke
Widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces electoral competition
title Widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces electoral competition
title_full Widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces electoral competition
title_fullStr Widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces electoral competition
title_full_unstemmed Widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces electoral competition
title_short Widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces electoral competition
title_sort widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces electoral competition
topic Social Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10288623/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37310996
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2217322120
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