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A new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis E-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure
BACKGROUND/AIMS: Hepatitis E virus (HEV)-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has unacceptably high short-term mortality. However, it is unclear whether the existing predictive scoring models are applicable to evaluate the prognosis of HEV-triggered ACLF. METHODS: We screened datasets of...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10290386/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37355667 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12944-023-01826-y |
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author | Chen, Chong Zhu, Aihong Ye, Shanke Li, Weixia Fei, Ling Huang, Qin Chen, Liang |
author_facet | Chen, Chong Zhu, Aihong Ye, Shanke Li, Weixia Fei, Ling Huang, Qin Chen, Liang |
author_sort | Chen, Chong |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND/AIMS: Hepatitis E virus (HEV)-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has unacceptably high short-term mortality. However, it is unclear whether the existing predictive scoring models are applicable to evaluate the prognosis of HEV-triggered ACLF. METHODS: We screened datasets of patients with HEV-triggered ACLF from a regional tertiary hospital for infectious diseases in Shanghai, China, between January 2011 and January 2021. Clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded and compared to determine a variety of short-term mortality risk factors, which were used to develop and validate a new prognostic scoring model. RESULTS: Out of 4952 HEV-infected patients, 817 patients with underlying chronic liver disease were enrolled in this study. Among these, 371 patients with HEV-triggered ACLF were identified and allocated to the training set (n = 254) and test set (n = 117). The analysis revealed that hepatic encephalopathy (HE), ascites, triacylglycerol and apolipoprotein A (apoA) were associated with 90-day mortality (P < 0.05). Based on these significant indicators, we designed and calculated a new prognostic score = 0.632 × (ascites: no, 1 point; mild to moderate, 2 points; severe, 3 points) + 0.865 × (HE: no, 1 point; grade 1–2, 2 points; grade 3–4, 3 points) − 0.413 × triacylglycerol (mmol/L) − 2.171 × apoA (g/L). Compared to four well-known prognostic models (MELD score, CTP score, CLIF-C OFs and CLIF-C ACLFs), the new scoring model is more accurate, with the highest auROCs of 0.878 and 0.896, respectively, to predict 28- and 90-day transplantation-free survival from HEV-triggered ACLF. When our model was compared to COSSH ACLF IIs, there was no significant difference. The test data also demonstrated good concordance. CONCLUSIONS: This study is one of the first to address the correlation between hepatitis E and serum lipids and provides a new simple and efficient prognostic scoring model for HEV-triggered ACLF. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12944-023-01826-y. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10290386 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-102903862023-06-25 A new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis E-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure Chen, Chong Zhu, Aihong Ye, Shanke Li, Weixia Fei, Ling Huang, Qin Chen, Liang Lipids Health Dis Research BACKGROUND/AIMS: Hepatitis E virus (HEV)-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has unacceptably high short-term mortality. However, it is unclear whether the existing predictive scoring models are applicable to evaluate the prognosis of HEV-triggered ACLF. METHODS: We screened datasets of patients with HEV-triggered ACLF from a regional tertiary hospital for infectious diseases in Shanghai, China, between January 2011 and January 2021. Clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded and compared to determine a variety of short-term mortality risk factors, which were used to develop and validate a new prognostic scoring model. RESULTS: Out of 4952 HEV-infected patients, 817 patients with underlying chronic liver disease were enrolled in this study. Among these, 371 patients with HEV-triggered ACLF were identified and allocated to the training set (n = 254) and test set (n = 117). The analysis revealed that hepatic encephalopathy (HE), ascites, triacylglycerol and apolipoprotein A (apoA) were associated with 90-day mortality (P < 0.05). Based on these significant indicators, we designed and calculated a new prognostic score = 0.632 × (ascites: no, 1 point; mild to moderate, 2 points; severe, 3 points) + 0.865 × (HE: no, 1 point; grade 1–2, 2 points; grade 3–4, 3 points) − 0.413 × triacylglycerol (mmol/L) − 2.171 × apoA (g/L). Compared to four well-known prognostic models (MELD score, CTP score, CLIF-C OFs and CLIF-C ACLFs), the new scoring model is more accurate, with the highest auROCs of 0.878 and 0.896, respectively, to predict 28- and 90-day transplantation-free survival from HEV-triggered ACLF. When our model was compared to COSSH ACLF IIs, there was no significant difference. The test data also demonstrated good concordance. CONCLUSIONS: This study is one of the first to address the correlation between hepatitis E and serum lipids and provides a new simple and efficient prognostic scoring model for HEV-triggered ACLF. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12944-023-01826-y. BioMed Central 2023-06-24 /pmc/articles/PMC10290386/ /pubmed/37355667 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12944-023-01826-y Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Chen, Chong Zhu, Aihong Ye, Shanke Li, Weixia Fei, Ling Huang, Qin Chen, Liang A new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis E-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure |
title | A new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis E-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure |
title_full | A new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis E-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure |
title_fullStr | A new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis E-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure |
title_full_unstemmed | A new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis E-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure |
title_short | A new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis E-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure |
title_sort | new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis e-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10290386/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37355667 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12944-023-01826-y |
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